Expect 7% + DA in Jan 2010 :-Find consumer Price Index for September in New High: C.J.Mathews Sankarathil,MBA

Consumer Price Index leads the Way to 7% increase in DA from January 2010: C.J.athews Sankarathil,MBA

DAM sure the DA will cross 7% + in January 2011:C.J.Mathews Sankarathil MBA

Expressindia » Story

Costly food pushes inflation to 8.62%

Font Size

-A +A

New Delhi Annual inflation as measured by wholesale price index (WPI) rose slightly to 8.62% in September, strengthening the case for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to hike key interest rates once again at its monetary policy review on November 2. The main reason behind the rise was the acceleration of food inflation to 15.71% from the previous month’s 14.64%, making analysts wonder if stubborn food inflation has become a structural cause for high headline inflation.
Since March, RBI has lifted the repo rate (the rate at which the central bank lends money to commercial banks), five times by a total of 125 basis points to 6%.However, RBI governor D Subbarao said in Chandigarh that the central bank would study inflation data before deciding on further policy action.
“We will study the de-segregated inflation data in the monetary policy review next month. Inflation figure would be one of the variables to be looked at during the review. I cannot speculate the stance of monetary policy,” Subbarao said. The RBI will also have to factor in the information that industrial output growth fell nearly by half to 5.57% in August this year from a year ago, in contrast with the revised figure of 15.2% for July, and bearing out the erratic nature of output growth in recent months. The RBI said last month that it was nearing completion of the process of “normalising” policy rates.
In a recent interview with FE, Prime Minister’s economic advisory council chairman C Rangarajan had said that until inflation comes down to 6-6.5%, the RBI would need to continue taking action.
“Our expectation is that inflation rate would come down to 6.5% only by December. Inflation at 7-8% level would, in my view, warrant one more dose of monetary policy action,” Rangarajan said.
The 10-year bond yield edged 1 basis point higher to 8.05% after the data. It had closed at 8.02% in the previous session.
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has expressed concern over the rising prices, saying that managing inflation has been one of his biggest challenges. “One of my biggest challenges is to control inflation; but at the same time, I should not stand in the way of higher growth trajectory,” Mukherjee said in Kolkata.
Meanwhile, chief economic advisor Kaushik Basu exuded confidence that inflation will moderate to 6% by March-end. “Inflation is virtually holding constant between 8.5% and 8.6%... For the first time, both core CPI and the WPI are in single digit...(We are) hopeful of year-end estimate holding at 6%,” he said.
“I expect RBI to continue its calibrated tightening – 25 basis points hike in both repo and reverve repo rates and may be also 25 basis points increase in banks\' cash reserve ratio.” said Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist, Bank of Baroda.
Prices of primary articles – food, non-food articles and minerals – shot up 17.45% on an annual basis according to wholesale price index data released by the government on Friday. Prices of fuel and power went up 11.06%, while manufactured goods became expensive by 4.59% during the month.
This is the second consecutive month in which inflation has stayed in single digit, after the base year for comparing price rise was changed from 1999-2000 to 2004-2005. Prior to the base year change, the inflation figure was over 10% until July.
Inflation was 8.51% in August. The July figure, meanwhile, has been revised upwards to 10.31% from the provisional estimate of 9.97%.

It is my promise to Get 7% + D.A for Jan 2011 :- C.J.Mathews Sankarathil,MBA

     
                                             C. J.MATHEWS SANKARATHIL MBA



Rising prices of food and manufactured products will continue pushing up overall inflation untill November when the kharif crop hits the markets.
According to a median forecast of 11 economists polled by DNA, inflation in September is expected to come around 8.55%.
The government is expected to announce the September data on Thursday.
India’s inflation indicator - the wholesale price index (WPI), is expected to remain sticky at August levels for September as well as October months.
“Food inflation will moderate from November. By then, the kharif harvest would have come in and food prices will tend to ease,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, Care Rating.
In August 2010, WPI came in at 8.5% with food inflation at 14.64%, manufactured products at 4.78% and fuel & power at 12.55% higher compared with same period last year.
It should also be noted that the index for the month of August was based on the revised WPI format with a new base year i.e. 2004-05 and 241 new items. Inflation according to the old index was 9.5%.
The latest data on food inflation shows that it was at 16.24% as on September 25, 2010 as compared with a year ago. Fuels and power had increased by 10.73% during the same period.
Economists expect that food prices and manufactured products prices have been high in September and will continue to stay high in October too.
However, by March 2011, economists still expect that overall inflation will cool down. “We expect it will come down to 5.5% by March 2011,” said A Prasanna, vice-president, ICICI Securities Primary Dealership.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been closely monitoring rising prices through WPI and other indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) too. “CPI will continue to remain high. Only the high base will tend to moderate it a bit. But prices will continue to be high,” said Sabnavis.
If inflation stays high, speculations of further rate hikes by RBI will also gain ground since RBI has been resorting to rate hikes citing inflationary pressures in the past.
“We expect a 25 basis points hike in policy rates in the next review,” said Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist of Crisil, the rating agency.
RBI will review its credit and monetary policy on November 2, 2010.

It is my promise to Get 7% + D.A for Jan 2011 :- C.J.Mathews Sankarathil,MBA

                                              C.J.MATHEWS SANKARATHIL MBA




 Inflation again flies only..........................................................!

The annual inflation rate of India's prices of food, as measured by the wholesale price index, or WPI, for the week ended October 2 marginally rose to 16.37 per cent from the 16.24 per cent of the preceding week, due to higher prices of milk, vegetables, fruits and wheat.
The rate of inflation for the corresponding week in the preceding year was 11.21 per cent. The 52-week average inflation for the week ended October 2 was 18.62 per cent, as per the data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
The annual rate of inflation under the "Non-Food Articles" category rose to 22.73 per cent from the 22.15 per cent of the preceding week. The 52-week average inflation for the week ended October 2 was 13.81 per cent.
Primary articles
The annual rate of inflation for the week ended October 2 was 18.54 per cent, slightly lower than the 18.53 per cent of the preceding week. It was 8.78 per cent for the corresponding week of the preceding year. The 52-week average inflation for the week was 18.44 per cent, say the data.
The index for this group, with a weightage of 22.02 per cent, increased by 0.66 per cent over the preceding week.
These groups and items showed variations:
The index for the "Food Articles" category increased by 0.89 per cent from the preceding week, due to the higher prices of fruits and vegetables, gram, bajra, masur, urad, barley and moong. However, those of fish-marine, arhar and condiments and spices declined.

Retirement Age of Central Govt employees will remain 60, but why 55 and a unification only for Kerala Government Employees? Protest- C.J.Mathews Sankarathil, MBA

No raise in retirement age of Central govt employees: Cabinet Secretary.

Putting an end to speculation that the retirement age of Central government employees will be raised, the Centre has made it clear that it has no plans to raise the age for superannuation.

"No, there is no such plan. There is no thinking at all. The status quo will continue," Cabinet Secretary K M Chandrasekhar said when asked whether there is any move in this regard.

Currently, the retirement age of Central government employees is 60 years.

Chandrasekhar said there have been rumours that it would be raised but it was nothing but a "wishful thinking".
"I tried to find out. But there is no file in (Department of) Expenditure, no file in DoPT (Department of Personnel and Training). There is nothing. It is more of a wishful thinking," he said in an interview.

The Cabinet Secretary also said the government has no plans to bring an uniformity in the retirement age among the state government employees.

"The states will decide their own retirement age," he said.

All states have their own retirement age -- starting from 55 years (Kerala) to 60 years (Uttar Pradesh, Assam etc). The Madhya Pradesh government teachers retire at the age of 62 years.

Source : Zee News.

Food price Index flying ! Chance leads to 7% D.A in Jan 2011: C.J.Mathews Sankarathil,MBA

* Food price index up 16.44 pct vs 15.46 week ago
* Fuel price index up 10.73 pct vs 11.48 week ago
* Aug consumer price index up 9.88 pct vs 11.25 pct in July
* Cbank seen lifting key rate by 25 bps by end-December (Adds fiscal deficit, CPI, analyst quote)
By Matthias Williams
NEW DELHI, Sept 30 (Reuters) - India's annual food price inflation continued to quicken in mid-September as heavy rains disrupted supplies and analysts see another rate hike by the year end as the central bank acts to stamp down high inflation.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has said emerging macroeconomic conditions, especially prices, would determine its future action, with five rate hikes since mid-March having brought monetary conditions close to normal.
The surge is also a political concern for the ruling Congress party, which faces key state elections this year and next. With a third of the world's poor living in India, the country had seen governments being voted out over high food prices.
Food makes up around 14 percent of the wholesale price index (WPI), the most watched price gauge in India. Policymakers had expected the good summer harvest to slow price rises.
The RBI projects headline inflation INWPI=ECI to ease to 6 percent by March, when the current financial year ends, from 8.5 percent in August, but noted in its September policy review that food prices continued to contribute to inflationary pressures.
"We don't expect food inflation to ease substantially before the kharif (winter harvested) crop comes into the market," said Indranil Pan, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank.
The central bank last raised its repo rate, at which it lends to banks, on Sept. 16 by 25 basis points to 6 percent. Analysts expect another quarter-point rise by the year end.
Data on Thursday showed the food price index in the year to Sept. 18 rose 16.44 percent, compared with 15.46 percent in the previous week, on higher prices of pulses, onions and vegetables.
It was the second straight rise under a new data series -- with a different base year of 2004-05, new components and weightings -- under which readings began in the week to Sept. 4.
Separate data showed the consumer price index (CPI) for industrial workers rose 9.88 percent in August, slower than July's 11.25 percent increase. The CPI component basket has a higher proportion of food items than the WPI basket

DEARNESS ALLOWANCE JANUARY 2011,will be 7% : Cjm

As per the announcement of All India Consumer Price Index Numbers from Labour Bureau, the index increased by 4 points and stood at 178. The Dearness Allowance from July, 2010 is  45%.  We are continuing the calculation to find the increased percentage of additional  Dearness Allowance for the month of January, 2011 will be 7%.
 

Month / Year	B.Y. 2001=100	Total of 12 Months	12 Months Average	% Increase over 115.763	App. DA	DA %
Jun-08	140	1623	135.25	19.49	16.84	16
Jul-08	143	1634	136.17	20.41	17.63	17
Aug-08	145	1646	137.17	21.41	18.49	18
Sep-08	146	1659	138.25	22.49	19.43	19
Oct-08	148	1673	139.42	23.66	20.44	20
Nov-08	148	1687	140.58	24.82	21.44	21
Dec-08	147	1700	141.67	25.91	22.38	22
Jan-09	148	1714	142.83	27.07	23.39	23
Feb-09	148	1727	143.92	28.16	24.32	24
Mar-09	148	1738	144.83	29.07	25.11	25
Apr-09	150	1750	145.83	30.07	25.98	25
May-09	151	1762	146.83	31.07	26.84	26
Jun-09	153	1775	147.92	32.16	27.78	27
Jul-09	160	1792	149.33	33.57	29.00	29
Aug-09	162	1809	150.75	34.99	30.23	30
Sep-09	163	1826	152.17	36.41	31.45	31
Oct-09	165	1843	153.58	37.82	32.67	32
Nov-09	168	1863	155.25	39.49	34.11	34
Dec-09	169	1885	157.08	41.32	35.70	35
Jan-10	172	1909	159.08	43.32	37.42	37
Feb-10	170	1931	160.92	45.16	39.01	39
Mar-10	170	1953	162.75	46.99	40.59	40
Apr-10	170	1973	164.42	48.66	42.03	42
May-10	172	1994	166.17	50.41	43.54	43
Jun-10	174	2015	167.92	52.16	45.05	45
Jul-10	178	2033	169.42	53.66	46.35	46

Expect Dearness Allowance for january 2011 will be 7%. C.J.Mathews MBA

The All India Consumer Price Index number for

(Industrial Workers) (Base 2001=100) for the month of

August 2010 is 178 as announced by Statistics

Department, Labour, Government of India.

DA . Present DA rate from 1.7.2010 is 45%. Increase with

effect from July 2010 is 10%. 

Month	All India Index	% of increase
Nov 2008	148	21.44
Dec 2008	147	22.38
Jan 2009	148	23.39
Feb 2009	148	24.32
Mar 2009	148	25.12
Apr 2009	150	25.98
May 2009	151	26.84
Jun 2009	153	27.78
Jul 2009	160	29.00
Aug 2009	162	30.23
Sep 2009	163	31.45
Oct 2009	165	32.67
Nov 2009	168	34.11
Dec 2009	169	35.70
Jan 2010	172	37.43
Feb 2010	170	39.01
Mar 2010	170	40.59
Apr 2010	170	42.03
May 2010	172	43.54
Jun 2010	174	45.06

July 2010	178
Aug 2010	178

Presently the dearness allowance(DA) based on the

movement in the AICPI (IW)that is 1982=100.The fifth

 CPC had adopted the AICPI(IW) using 1982 series for

estimation of DA.The government has developed a new

 series with base 2001with effect from 2006.Dearness

 allowance as on   July 2010 is 45%.  

Now dearness allowance( DA)is on the way to January

2011.Whenever  DA crosses over 50% the rates of all

 allowances shall automatically increase by 25%.If DA

JANUARY 2011 is 7% the total DA will be 52%.All central

government employees expecting the day to come.All

Kerala state government employees expecting to get

 this  7%  for them being the first D.A after the pay

revision expected to take place by 01/03/2010.

Food price rise in September 2010- Expect high rate DA from January 2011Cjm

NEW DELHI (Commodity Online) : India’s food inflation climbed above 15 percent mark as the RBI hiked key rates by an identical margin in July.

According to Commerce Ministry’s data, India's food price index rose 15.10 per cent while the fuel price index climbed 11.48 per cent, in the year to Sept 4, under a new series with different base year, components and weightings.
Will edible oil prices continue to weaken? For latest trends and insightful analysis on India’s oilseeds market, subscribe to Commodity Online Info Service
food inflation as measured by the old series with 1993-94 as base year, stood at 11.47 per cent on the year while fuel inflation was at an annual 12.71 per cent.

These figures are not comparable with the latest data release. The primary articles index was up 16.22 per cent in the latest week. It rose 15.40 per cent in the previous week.

The wholesale price index, the most widely watched gauge of prices in India, rose 8.5 per cent in August, the first reading from the new data series.

India's central bank, the Reserve Bank of India raised its key short-term lending rate by 25 basis points and borrowing rate by 50 basis points to check rising prices.

CPI(IW) is high on Aug 2010-Chance to get 7% D.A from July 2010.CJM

Index Number	Base Year	All India General Index
		July 2010	August 2010
Consumer Price Index Numbers for Industrial Workers - CPI(IW)	2001=100	178	178
		July 2010	August 2010
Consumer Price Index Numbers forAgricultural Labourers	1986-87= 100	554	557
Consumer Price Index Numbers for Rural Labourers	1986-87=100	554	556

Find the below article to know about the brutal reduction of retirement age by EMS, the LDF personality: C.J.athews Sankarathil

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

A small extension of service to government employees

BRP BHASKAR
Gulf Today

The government of Kerala has surreptitiously offered a small extension of service to its employees by pushing the date of retirement to the last day of the financial year in which they attain the age of superannuation.

Kerala has the highest life expectancy in the country. Ironically, it also has the lowest retirement age.

At the time of independence, the retirement age of government employees was 55 years throughout the country. That was enough to assure them a reasonably long working period since life expectancy at that time was only 32 years.

Thanks to the success of various governmental and non-governmental programmes, over the last six decades infant mortality rate in the state dropped dramatically and public health improved significantly.

Today, life expectancy in the state is higher than in the rest of the country.

At the time of the 2001 census, life expectancy at birth in Kerala was at 71.7 years for males and 75.0 years for females as against 64.1 years for males and 65.4 years for females in the country as a whole.

In 1966, when Kerala was under President's rule, the state government, taking note of the rising longevity, raised the age of retirement of government employees to 58 years.

A coalition government, headed by the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M), which came to power the following year, reduced it to 55 years again. This was done to create immediate vacancies in the government and facilitate fresh recruitment.
Quite naturally youths welcomed the step. Since then the governments at the Centre and in the other states have raised the retirement age to 58 or even 60 years.

Nowhere is it below 58 years. Central government employees now retire at 60. In Assam and Uttar Pradesh, too, the retirement age is 60 years.

School teachers in Kerala, like government employees, retire at 55. The retirement age of teachers in Madhya Pradesh is 62 years, which is higher than that of government employees.

No government in Kerala has had the courage to increase the retirement age since the move will be unpopular with young jobseekers. The state suffers a double loss on this account.

On the one hand, the state incurs a huge expenditure by way of pension payments to employees for long periods. On the other, it loses the services of persons who have work experience and are physically and mentally fit to work for several years more.

Even government doctors retire at 55 in Kerala. This has proved beneficial to the private medical colleges and hospitals that have sprung up in the state in recent years.

These institutions are able to find their requirement of doctors and teachers from among the recently retired. Pension and salary payments account for about 75% of the Kerala government's non-plan expenditure.

In the past 10 years, government employees' salary payments have risen from Rs22.16 billion to Rs80.55 billion a year and pension payments from Rs7.53 billion to Rs40.54 billion a year.

Early this year, a government-appointed public expenditure review committee proposed that the retirement age of government employees and teachers be raised from 55 to 58 years immediately and to 60 years later on.

It said this would release a significant part of the government revenue for productive use. It pointed out that often the government paid pension to retiring employees for 25 to 30 years. It was not good for healthy persons to receive payment without doing any work.
Chief Minister VS Achuthanandan immediately shot down the proposal. Home Minister Kodiyeri Balakrishnan said, "No political party has come forward to support the demand for a higher retirement age."

Some organisations of government employees have called for upward revision of the retirement age. However, no political party backs the demand.

The Democratic Youth Federation of India, the CPI-M's youth wing, opposes the demand on the ground that it will restrict employment opportunities.

There are 4.26 million jobseekers on the live registers of the employment exchanges in the state. Of them, 2.31 million are women. The government's annual intake of 18,000 can make little difference to joblessness of this magnitude.

The move to shift the retirement date of employees from their dates of birth to the last day of the financial year was announced by Finance Minister TM Thomas Isaac in this year's budget speech. To mollify the youth, he has said some 12,000 government jobs will still be on offer this year.

Raising of retirement age- Latest call for discussion.Cjm

Central government to consider making a universal retirement policy for all public servants--Neelendra Pandey

>> Sunday, September 26, 2010

PIL on retirement age of civil servants

A PIL was filed in the Lucknow bench of the Allahabad High Court today, seeking direction to extend the retirement age of officers of India Civil Services from 60 years to at least 65 years.

Neelendra Pandey, a local social worker, stated in his PIL that he is aggrieved with discrepancies in the retirement policy of different government services.

He said IAS, IPS and IFS officers retire at 60 years, while people of about 80 years and sometime even more continue as President, Prime Minister, Governor and Chief Minister, Minister and MLAs.

Professors and doctors of Central universities and institutions like AIIMS retire at 65 and primary school teachers retire at 62, Pandey said while terming the retirement policies as defective and challenging the same.

He requested the court to direct Central government to consider making a universal retirement policy for all public servants.

D.A.Calculator for State Employees : C.J.Mathews Sankarathil, MBA

       C.J.Mathews Sankarathil

         State President, Kerala Gazetted Officers Front

 Labour Bureau, Department Statistics, Government of India website: http://labourbureau.gov/. announces the CPI-IW index  every month.

After implementation of sixth pay commission report for Central Government employees, the dearness allowance has to be calculated based on CPI-IW index with the base year.Therefore,the DA with effect from the period 1.1.2006, has to be calculated using average Price CPI-IW index of 536 for 2005 (base 1982=100) adjusted to the base year 2001=100 by dividing the same with the Linking Factor between 1982 and 2001 Series which is 4.63. As a result, the average consumer price index (Industrial workers) for 12 months in 2005 (base 2001=100) was worked out to 115.76.

To calculate Dearness Allowance from the year 2006, twice a year using this average index? It’s quite simple. Say, if you want to calculate Dearness Allowance with effect from Jan-06, get the average of monthly All India Consumer Price Index (IW) with the base year 2001=100 for the preceding 12 months.

 Formula for calculating Dearness Allowance

 using AICPI-IW

Dearness Allowance = (Avg of AICPI for the past 12 months – 115.76)*100/115.76

For example if you want to calculate DA with effect from 1.1.2006, get the average of AICPI for the period from 1.1.2005 to 31.12.2005, which is 115.76 and apply the same in the formula as follows
DA with effect from 1.1.2006 = (115.76-115.76)*100/115.76
= 0%
DA w.e.f 1.07.2006 = (118.95-115.76)*100/115.76
= 2%


EXPECTED DA FROM JULY 2010  --95% or 96%--?

>> Saturday, Sept 24, 2010                  TRIVANDRUM<<

               All India Consumer Price Index Number for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) on base 2001=100 for the past four month have been published in Labour Bureau website. According to these results we can expect that July 2010 will witness at least 17.5% increase in Dearness Allowance That is from the Existing 78% to95%OR EVEN 96%

          All India Consumer Price Index Number for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) on base 2001=100 for the month of  jUNE, 2010 boosted to   174(one hundred and seventy four).For the past three months from February From 2010 January  the Index Number for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) is boosting.The consumer Price Index Number(CPI-IW) for the month of August 2010 is  178 and the CPI-IW for the month of September 2010 yet to be announced.

         Hence it is not so easy to predict the exact  rate of  D.A hike for the period of July 2010 to December 2010.Since  the CPI-IW Number for the month of June and JUly was high as per the official CPI-IW index published by Labour Bureau, Department of Statistics,  take our expectation for an increase 17.5% hike in Dearness Allowance from July 2010.

The announcement of Central D.A from 35% to 45% leades the way to it. Since the pay revision is not implemented or interim relief declared, there is a chance for an increse of18% during the month of December, which can be drawn along with January salary.